
ANALYSIS
The adage about not judging an NFL draft for three years is outdated. It is kept alive only in personnel circles to buy time with demanding owners.
The fact is the best teams of a given season nowadays routinely receive significant contributions from their rookies.
Where would the Tennessee Titans be without running back Chris Johnson? The Atlanta Falcons without quarterback Matt Ryan? The Denver Broncos without offensive tackle Ryan Clady and receiver Eddie Royal? The Baltimore Ravens without quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice?
(One team bucking this trend is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are still competing at the elite level despite no production from their top three picks - running back Rashard Mendenhall, receiver Limas Sweed and linebacker Bruce Davis.)
Other examples abound. The New York Giants last year used six of their eight draft picks in key roles on the way to the Super Bowl championship. The year before, the Indianapolis Colts relied on instant impact from rookie running back Joseph Addai and got a surprise 14 starts out of safety Antoine Bethea, a sixth-round pick, and won the Super Bowl.
The converse of this trend is that some of the biggest disappointments in a given year end up being teams receiving virtually nothing from their rookie class.
Exhibit A: Jacksonville mortgaged multiple future picks to select the top two pass rushers in the draft, Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. They have been nonfactors. The Jaguars are 4-9 after having realistic Super Bowl hopes in the preseason.
Exhibit B: San Diego had Super Bowl hopes, too, after nearly defeating New England in a road playoff game last year. This year the Chargers are 5-8 and three games behind division-rival Denver. General Manager A.J. Smith recently blamed the dropoff on himself for not bolstering the team with new talent.
Which brings us to Exhibit C: the Browns.
The Browns' 2008 draft has been, in a word, underwhelming.
Expectations were lowered, of course, when the top three picks were wiped out in trades. But even when you factor in the players acquired in those trades - quarterback Brady Quinn, defensive end Corey Williams and nose tackle Shaun Rogers - the Browns' 08 draft falls short of average. Grade it D.
Personnel experts hate when amateurs grade their work after so little time. But like students, draft classes earn grades every year. They may go up or down.
Here's a breakdown on the Browns' Class of 2008:
First pick, Quinn. Acquired in 2007 for '07 second-rounder and '08 first-rounder in trade with Dallas.
At 3-5, coach Romeo Crennel shocked everyone by promoting Quinn to spark a turnaround. Quinn had two good starts before breaking his right index finger and worsening it in his third game. Season-ending surgery robbed Quinn of valuable game experience and forced the team to guess on whether it should trade Derek Anderson and commit to Quinn.
Second pick, Williams. Acquired in trade with Green Bay for '08 second-rounder.
An upfield pass rusher in Green Bay's one-gap 4-3 scheme, he didn't feel comfortable in the 3-4 alignment from the start. Then he hurt his shoulder in training camp. He has played hurt all year and has not been the player the Browns envisioned. Tenth in tackles (49), he has one-half sack - same figure as backup safety Nick Sorensen and backup end Santonio Thomas.
Third pick, Rogers. Acquired in trade with Detroit for '08 third-rounder and cornerback Leigh Bodden.
Probably the MVP of the entire team and a strong Pro Bowl candidate in a crowded tackle field. Third in tackles (69), first in sacks (4.5), tackles for loss (seven) and quarterback pressures (14). Also has two blocked field goals. What's amazing is despite Rogers' dominance in the middle of the line, the Browns are giving up 19 yards more in rushing per game (148.5 yards) than last year and have fallen from 27th in rush defense to 28th. The domino effect of Rogers' presence never materialized.
Fourth pick, linebacker Beau Bell.
Touted by General Manager Phil Savage as "a hammer-type hitter" and "a powerful tackler," Bell fell behind with a knee injury and opened the season rehabbing from arthroscopic surgery. He has two tackles on special teams and one forced fumble on a kickoff. He has not played a down on a defense begging for tacklers. Crennel said Thursday, "He's still learning to play at game speed and game tempo."
Fifth pick, tight end Martin Rucker.
Four catches in the first preseason game made him a cause c?l?bre for a day - until he, too, had to have a procedure on a knee. He was seen as insurance in the event Kellen Winslow staged a holdout. Now with Winslow's future with the team uncertain, Rucker still isn't playing much. Winslow said Thursday, "He's got a long way to go." Rucker has one catch for 9 yards.
Sixth pick, nose tackle Ahtyba Rubin.
Browns scouts saw him as a steal in the sixth round. A pure nose tackle, his playing time has been limited behind the workhorse Rogers. He has 11 tackles in nine games.
Seventh pick, receiver Paul Hubbard.
Despite an abysmal year for Browns receivers, he has stayed on the practice squad all year.
Eighth pick, linebacker Alex Hall.
When Antwan Peek went down with a season-ending injury, Hall became the pass-rush hope from the left side. Through four games, he had three sacks and Savage was taking bows for unearthing a last-round gem from Saint Augustine's. But the dreaded rookie wall has flattened Hall and when he enters a game, the very next play is a run right at him. He has 23 tackles, three sacks and four quarterback pressures.
The good news about NFL drafts is there is always next year to change one's record. The bad news for the Browns is they already have forfeited picks in the third, fifth and seventh rounds in trades involving Rucker, Hubbard and once-used cornerback Travis Daniels.
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter: tgrossi@plaind.com, 216-999-4670
BOX
Browns' draft class of 2008
Round Pos. Player Comment
1.
QB
Brady Quinn *
Mothballed until Game 9, finger surgery after Game 11.
2.
DE
Corey Williams **
Ineffective playing with shoulder injury all year.
3.
NT
Shaun Rogers ***
Only disruptive player on defense.
4a.
LB
Beau Bell
Played in four games, one forced fumble on a kickoff.
4b.
TE
Martin Rucker
Played in two games, one catch.
6a.
NT
Ahtyba Rubin
Played in five games, 11 tackles.
6b.
WR
Paul Hubbard
On practice squad.
7.
LB
Alex Hall
Played in 13 games, stalled at three sacks.
* acquired in 2007 trade with Dallas. ** acquired in '08 trade with Green Bay.
*** acquired in '08 trade with Detroit.
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